Solana's long-term prospects look quite positive. In 2024, the network saw a sharp rise in interest, mainly thanks to the boom in meme tokens. The key factors underpinning Solana's potential are as follows:
- Technological advantages: high speed and low transaction fees.
- Growing DeFi ecosystem with projects such as Jupiter, Raydium and Orca.
- Popularity among developers and users for launching new projects.
However, there are also risks, specifically, a high percentage of fraudulent projects, which can negatively affect the network’s reputation.
As for the prospects of getting ahead of Ethereum in capitalization, as of July 11, 2024, the situation is as follows:
- Ethereum capitalization: $378.5 bln (120,209,171 coins at $3,149)
- Solana capitalization: $66 bln (463,963,318 coins at $142.97)
For Solana to catch up with Ethereum, its price would need to reach $815.79 per coin, an increase of approximately 5.7x. This is significant, but not impossible, growth for the cryptocurrency market.
Given the current dynamics of Solana's development, it has the potential to significantly reduce the gap with Ethereum in terms of capitalization in the long term. However, this will depend on many factors, including further developments in technology, changes in the regulatory environment and the overall dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
It's also important to bear in mind that Ethereum continues to develop and holds a strong market position. Additionally, the total supply of Solana coins may increase faster than Ethereum, which could impact future settlements. Here, one should take into account the growth of the entire market as Ethereum will not stand still. If the SEC allows the launch of spot ETH ETFs, it will be difficult for Solana to catch up.
In conclusion, while the prospect of overtaking Ethereum in market capitalization looks more realistic than it might seem at first glance, it still remains a challenge that will require significant and sustained growth for Solana over an extended period.