Last week, bitcoin exhibited heightened volatility amid the impact of several key factors. Positive sentiment drove inflows into spot ETFs ($480 mln per day), with the BlackRock IBIT fund alone taking in over $300 mln in two days. Total ETF assets reached $66 bln, underscoring continued strong institutional interest.
However, the market came under pressure from geopolitical tensions related to the conflict between Iran and Israel. Statements by the Iranian military about preparing a powerful retaliation pushed the price action down to $67,864. Technically, it’s important to hold the $65,800 support level as a breakout could trigger the formation of a double top and reverse the trend downwards.
Volatility could spike over the next few days against the backdrop of two key events: the US presidential election and the Fed meeting. An expected rate cut to 4.75% would be potentially positive for crypto assets. If the price action holds above $65,800, we could still see a rally to $80k by mid-November.
As for the impact of a Harris or Trump victory, this is a secondary factor for the cryptocurrency market. Fundamental factors are of far greater importance: the upcoming halving, institutional demand through ETFs, and the Fed’s overall monetary policy. And while short-term volatility is possible, the long-term trend will be driven by these factors.