A number of factors have contributed to bitcoin’s rally above $71k:
1. A flurry of activity by large holders (whales): one of them recently withdrew 570 bitcoins from Binance, increasing his/her holdings to nearly 6,000 BTCs. This behavior points to investor confidence and implies further price gains.
2. The upcoming US election (November 5) is creating optimism in light of possible changes in cryptocurrency regulation. According to FiveThirtyEight polls, Donald Trump’s chances of winning have risen to 52% versus Kamala Harris’ 48%. A possible Trump victory could lead to a new policy for crypto assets, which would attract more institutional investment.
3. Expectations of positive earnings reports from crypto-related companies (MicroStrategy and Coinbase) confirm the health of the crypto ecosystem and strengthen confidence in Bitcoin
The confluence of factors (whale activity, pre-election mood, expectations of corporate earnings, and seasonality) lay the groundwork for an optimistic forecast. In technical terms, the next target is $72,850, followed by a retracement to a new ATH.