Despite the cold start, the value of tokenized assets will reach $1.9 trln by 2030, according to an estimate by McKinsey. Why has tokenization gained such great momentum, but has not yet been widely adopted technologically? Can tokenized assets reach this level in six years?
Asset tokenization has indeed gained significant momentum in recent years, but widespread adoption of this technology still faces some hurdles. Here are some of the main reasons:
- The financial sector is highly regulated, and the introduction of new technologies requires careful development of the regulatory framework.
- Existing infrastructure is complex and sluggish, slowing down innovation.
- Developing a tokenized asset ecosystem requires significant initial investment and active user participation.
- The asset tokenization market has not yet reached sufficient volumes, a factor that hinders their rollout and trading.
- In some cases, the advantages of tokenized assets over traditional instruments are not yet obvious.
McKinsey's forecast of reaching $1.9 trln in tokenized assets by 2030 is an ambitious, albeit potentially achievable, goal. Here are the factors that may help or hinder this objective:
Contributing factors:
- Development of the regulatory framework
- Technological improvements (blockchain scalability, interoperability)
- Growing interest from corporations and institutional investors
- Development of application scenarios that show clear benefits.
Obstacles:
- Sluggish regulatory adoption
- Technical difficulties and security issues
- Competition from improved traditional financial instruments
- Economic crises or regulatory restrictions
Given the current pace of development and rising interest from large corporations (as noted by Fortune 100), achieving the target value looks feasible. However, this would require overcoming existing barriers and creating truly compelling use cases for tokenized assets.
Also note that forecasts over such a lengthy timeframe in a rapidly developing technological environment are always fraught with a high degree of uncertainty. Actual market development may differ significantly both to the upside or downside of the forecasted value.