The key problem with Scroll is that it has not yet offered anything unique to the market in its first year of operations, other than an airdrop. With dozens of L2 solutions for Ethereum, this approach does not look like it's going to be successful in the long term.
The current SCR price action ($1.44 → $1.03, -28.4%) confirms the overall trend that most airdrop projects will see in 2024. According to Keyrock research, 88% of tokens show a significant drop in the first three months after airdrops. I expect the price to continue falling to $0.90. Unless there is a rebound, I expect it to fall to $0.80.
As for the future of airdrop projects in general, I can see a transformation in this direction. We are seeing a shift in focus from rewarding active community members to simply rewarding the capital contributed. This fundamentally changes the nature of airdrops and, in my opinion, undermines their original idea - to create an actively engaged community around the project.
The classic airdrop model seems to have played itself out. The future probably belongs to projects that can offer real value and innovation, rather than just a token distribution mechanism. Perhaps we will see the emergence of new models that will be more focused on the long-term development of the project and actual community engagement, rather than merely short-term speculative interests.
In the case of Scroll and other such projects, the risk of a slump in the L2 solutions market is of particular concern. When projects focus on airdrops instead of rolling out technologies and offering unique solutions, this can lead to a slowdown in innovation across the entire sector.