The sale of a large quantity of bitcoins by the US government raises legitimate concerns among market participants. These bitcoins are currently valued at approximately $4.4 bln, with each BTC worth $62,500. However, the current situation differs markedly from previous large government bitcoin sales.
Now the market is in a fundamentally different state compared to previous periods. After the launch of spot BTC ETFs, institutional liquidity has risen significantly. Moreover, the market has known about these confiscated bitcoins for a long time, meaning that the risk is partially priced in at the current levels.
Notably, news of the Supreme Court ruling did not cause a noticeable reaction among market participants. Bitcoin continues to track the S&P 500, and traders are more focused on how the conflict between Iran and Israel plays out.
The US government will probably opt for a structured approach if it decides to go ahead with the sale. This may include gradual selling through the OTC market or a series of auctions, which would significantly mitigate the impact on the market price. This is a small volume for the market, so sales should not result in a flash crash.