Bitcoin’s worst performance since the halving in April has “buried” the previously observed four-year cycle associated with this event, according to analysts at Outlier Ventures.
The experts urged investors to stop counting on the previously observed pattern, when the halving of the miner’s reward had a fundamental impact on digital assets. Be that as it may, is the cryptocurrency now developing in a completely different direction?
The crypto market is evolving along a more complex trajectory than before. Clear cycles are giving way to more complex patterns that reflect multiple factors. Investors should adapt their strategies to this new reality, without relying solely on historical cycles.
Although the four-year cycle associated with the halving may be “buried,” this does not mean that bitcoin is developing in a completely different direction. The influence of single events (such as the halving) is decreasing, while the role of macroeconomic factors and institutional investors is increasing. The market is becoming more mature and perhaps less volatile in the long run.
Prices never track cycles exactly due to the influence of many factors. Elliott wave analysis offers a more flexible approach to analyzing price movements. Given previous halving events, the BTC rally should start around mid-November 2024 and last until July 2025. So, it’s still too soon to write off BTC.