It's been 100 days since the halving event. Experts claimed that bitcoin and other alts would start to rally about 2-4 months after the halving. However, the outlook remains ambiguous. Can any conclusions be drawn? And was the recent halving different from previous ones in terms of the subsequent performance of cryptocurrencies?
One hundred days have gone by since the 2024 bitcoin halving, but the situation on the cryptocurrency market remains ambiguous, while an analysis of the current situation allows us to draw a number of important conclusions.
Historically, after the halving events of 2016 and 2020, big bull runs and retracements to all-time highs got under way after about 210 days. However, the current cycle differs considerably from the previous ones. Bitcoin reached $73,777 even before the halving due to the approval and launch of spot bitcoin ETF trading. This unique event highlights the growing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Despite these early gains, a number of factors have held back the rally:
1. Distribution of bitcoin to creditors of the defunct Mt.Gox exchange
2. Sales of cryptocurrency confiscated by the German government
3. Tough monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve due to elevated inflation
Currently, bitcoin is trading in a wide range of $53,485-73,777 with a downward slope that implies resistance near $70,700.
There are several key factors that could Impact market dynamics going forward:
1. The upcoming US presidential election on November 5 could exert a powerful impact on the market. A shift in the political leadership could lead to a reassessment of cryptocurrencies by investors.
2. High inflation in some countries could boost the appeal of bitcoin as a store of value.
3. The development of cryptocurrency legislation in various countries could significantly shape their future. Tightening or loosening regulations in major economies would be a significant factor.
4. Ongoing improvements in bitcoin scaling, such as the development of the Lightning Network, could enhance its appeal and adoption.
5. Changing BTC correlation with traditional financial assets could underscore the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency market.
6. Instability in some regions of the world might increase interest in bitcoin as an alternative asset.
Following the historical pattern of 210 days after the halving, the potential starting date of a new rally falls on November 16, 2024. Interestingly, this is close to the date of the US elections, which could give rise to unique market dynamics.
In conclusion, although the current cycle differs from previous ones, fundamental factors such as growing institutional adoption and technological development remain strong. The market is in a state of anticipation, and the coming months may be decisive in determining the long-term trend.